Patriot Game will just be enough in AFC East

I was interested to read recently on NFL.com about a poll, in which people were asked which AFC Divisional Champion is least likely to retain their crown. Unsurprisingly, the Cincinnati Bengals topped the list, having had a rough time down the stretch and with rivals the Baltimore Ravens having strengthened significantly in the off-season. What did catch my eye was the 34% of people who thought the New England Patriots would struggle this year - I wasn't sure that I agreed. As such, I thought I'd look through that division to begin a new series through the off-season.

New England Patriots - it is important to start by saying that the Pats are not the team they once were - 3 Superbowls in the last decade under Tom Brady and Bill Belichick led to them being rightly dubbed "Team of the Decade". But QB Brady has since suffered injuries and last season came back not quite as sharp as he had once been - perhaps the surprise element of a 6th round selection done good has gone. And really, the big players on the offense in general are getting a bit long in the tooth - RB Fred Taylor and WR Randy Moss are both entering their 13th pro seasons. However, Brady will have a new weapon in TE Rob Gronkowski, a 2nd round pick out of Arizona, replacing Benamin Watson, who's gone to Cleveland. The defense remains hit-and-miss but they'll be happy to have retained the services of DT Vince Wilfork and picked up CB Devin McCourty. Much depends on the fitness of WR Wes Welker, Brady's go-to man so often last year, after a double knee ligament injury has cast a question mark over his participation in 2010. However, the fact that they keep teams at bay in terms of points and have many offensive weapons available should ensure that the Pats retain their AFC East crown. 11-5

New York Jets - ah the J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets. AFC Conference runners-up last year more in spite of rookie QB Mark Sanchez than because of him, although he did show flashes of potential at times (combined with flashes of idiocy). That they were the best rushing team in the league last year points towards Rex Ryan's strategy, although much will now depend on 2nd year RB Shonn Greene now that the veteran Thomas Jones has gone to Kansas City (good luck with that mate!), although they did pick up LaDanian Tomlinson on free agency, despite the guy clearly being past it. Sanchez can call on Braylon Edwards, Jericho Cotchery and bad boy Santonio Holmes, newly arrived from Pittsburgh, to improve his numbers, protected by the best O-Line going, led by the Pain Train himself, D'Brickashaw Ferguson. But it is in the defense, particularly the secondary that the Jets have an advantage over their rivals. With Darelle Revis at CB, opponents seriously have their deep passing options restricted, something that will only decrease if rookie Kyle Wilson lives up to his potential. Add in Antonio Cromartie, another former Charger, and you have serious competition. The Jets could win the divison at a canter. But they won't. Why? Because of the new stadium and the need to adjust accordingly - homefield advantage will not be so marked this year. But a wildcard slot should be their's. 10-6

Miami Dolphins - the re-emergence of troubled RB Ricky Williams and the potential of QB Chad Henne as the starter are all the Dolphins really had to smile about last year. The defense was pretty patchy and the offense lacked bit when it really counted, so a losing record was the least they could have expected. They addressed their defensive problems in the draft, with Jared Odrick and Koa Misi brought in to bolster the line. Then came the marquee signing of WR Brandon Marshall from the Denver Broncos (God knows why they let their star receiver go with their uncertain QB situation). He will be sidelined until training camp with injury but is a proven force in the NFL and will hopefully teach an inexperienced offense. A winning record is possible but probably 8-8, on the outside looking in.

Buffalo Bills - a bit of a laughing stock really, with only Jarius Byrd making the Pro Bowl, no surprise when you consider the success in stopping the passing game that he had in 2009, leading the NFL with 9 picks. They now have a new head coach in Chan Gailey and have cut ties with WR Terrell Owens and the circus of coverage that comes as part of the package. This was a sensible decision, but to have 3 QBs, all of whom I believe are not good enough to start in the NFL, and not know which one to play having ignored Jimmy Clausen in the draft is beyond me. So will it be Trent Edwards, Ryan Fitzpatrick or Brian Brohm? And with all this uncertainty, shouldn't they really have drafted an O-Lineman high up to protect these liabilities? No, they waited until the 5th round when they selected the pioneeringly big Chinese-born Ed Wang at T. The running game should be exciting, with Clemson rookie CJ Spiller joining Marshawn Lynch in the backfield but other than that I can't see a great season ahead for these boys. But they do have one of the best punters in the league... 4-12

RM