Friday 2 July 2010

NFC South: Who dey gonna beat dem Saints?

It's always hard to look past the current "world champions" when making predictions for the new NFL season. However, when you consider that the New Orleans Saints jumped from 4th to 1st in the NFC South en route to the Superbowl in 2009, you realise that anything could potentially happen. With an unknown quantity in the Panthers and improving Falcons and Bucs sides, there is a possibility that this division may just be one of the more interesting in the league in 2010. Then you remember the elite passer at the disposal of Sean Payton in N'orleans and you think again. Here's the lowdown:

New Orleans Saints - offensively untouchable last year. Really played an exciting game from the "We're gonna put up more points than you, no matter how many you get" school. At the centre of this masterful offense is of course No.9 himself, Drew Brees. Such expectations lie on his shoulders - he carried the hopes of not just the franchise last year, but of a community in desperate need of a boost after Hurricane Katrina. He provided. How do you possibly top that in 2010? More of the same will do. Perhaps, if Pierre Thomas carries on the form he showed in the post-season, the running game may be utilised further, allowing Brees more play action routes to throw. With Reggie Bush also lurking in the backfield, opposition defences will need to be on guard. Brees' targets remain the same - Devery Henderson, Marques Colston and TE Jeremy Shockey, provided he doesn't start fitting again. They are not a star-studded lineup but when Brees has such accuracy, you just need to be able to catch a football and hold on. Concerns lie in the defense, which was not what won a Superbowl. Yes, they do make plays, such as that of CB Tracy Porter picking Peyton to the house in the Superbowl. Legendary FS Darren Sharper has re-signed for one last hurrah, but with little else in the secondary, teams would do well to throw away from him to weaker areas. Of course, with pass rushers like Will Smith and Jonathan Vilma making the tackles, it can occasionally be difficult, but the defense still needs to make more consistent plays and prevent as many first downs as came last season. They will make the playoffs, probably as divisional champions. But, teams will get enough of a look at the defence to crack the code and they'll come unstuck one and done in the playoffs. 11-5.

Atlanta Falcons - Similar to the Saints in that they like to get as many points on the board as possible, with plenty of offensive weapons at their disposal. Unfortunately, many of these weapons found themselves injured during 2009 and so they weren't able to challenge the Saints at the top of the division and missed out on a wild card berth, although they did record the first back-to-back winning record in franchise history. And they'll go 3-in-a-row this year and possibly snatch a wild card spot because the offense is looking fit and ready again. QB Matt Ryan is now in his 3rd year as a pro and looks ready to post some serious numbers, although not quite ready to step up into that elite category, hence the chances of a Superbowl ring look slim for now. He'll want to cut down on the number of picks he throws or at least offset that with plenty of touchdowns. RB Michael Turner has slimmed back down and will hope to stay injury free - on his day he is one of the best rushers in the league but will want to use his weight to his advantage a la Frank Gore, so has been hitting the gym rather than KFC. Star receiver Roddy White and veteran TE Tony Gonzalez will want to improve on last year's numbers. The defense is OK, but lacks play making potential. Rookie LB Sean Weatherspoon is seen as "a bit of a character", so hopefully his vocal approach will buoy the men around him. 10-6.

Carolina Panthers - you can forget about Denver, forget about Arizona and you can certainly forget about Buffalo - this is where the most interesting QB situation in the league finds itself. After years of Jake Delhomme, the Panthers finally grew tired of being picked off in the redzone and cut him. They then told his backup Matt Moore that he would be the starter in training camp, despite Moore's career experience being modest. In a show of solidarity with their new man, they then picked up highly rated Jimmy Clausen in the draft 2nd round. Which won't have done wonders for Moore's confidence. He actually didn't do too badly when Delhomme got benched last season, starting in 5 games and recording a rating of 98.5, but the playbook was kept simple and you suspect that teams may work him out quickly. Clausen is used to running a pro-style offense at Notre Dame and has impressed in OTAs. It's Moore's job to lose but Clausen is a capable deputy. Either one will be well protected by Pro-Bowl C Ryan Kalil. The running game is more likely to be Carolina's forte, with both DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart capable of going long. Steve Smith will make most of the catches. The defense has been another strong suit for the Panthers for years now but gone is perennial All-Pro star DE Julius Peppers. A scary man and a great addition for Chicago, who are clearly more minted than the Panthers. This is a huge blow and could ruin any chances they had of making the playoffs. LB Jon Beason will now lead the defence. A decent side, but one which won't recover from losing two veterans in time to challenge. Transitional period = 6-10.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - the Bucs had a rank year in 2009, made even worse when their incompetence was brought to wider attention when they were thrashed by the in-form Patriots at Wembley. However, that day heralded the start of a new dawn, as Josh Johnson was shelved in favour of rookie QB Josh Freeman, via Byron Leftwich, who was signed in place of Jeff Garcia and was meant to be the starter. Freeman might actually turn out to be quite good. True, his numbers aren't great but its tough as a rookie in a failing offense. Raheem Morris had three teething problems in his first year as Bucs head coach. His offense, his defense and his special teams. 3-13 was the result. It's time for me to be a bit bold and make some risky predictions, because let's face it every one I've made so far in the NFL series has been pretty safe! I'm going to say that Freeman leads the offense to overcome the problems of 2009 and they start producing. Cadillac Williams and the running game will be important for this to happen. Gerald McCoy is the heir apparent to Warren Sapp as a DT and will be a popular and good fit in Morris' system. Old faithful CB Ronde Barber is still there to lead the defense. I don't know why, but I just have a feeling. 8-8. Or the Glazers could pull the plug and it'll all go horribly horribly wrong Lions 2008 style!

RM

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