AFC South: Colts coming back to the pack but standing strongest

Apologies for the lack of posts over the last few days - the writing team have been on tour. We are now back and focused on the jobs in hand. Which today involves previewing another division of the NFL - the AFC South. It's clear that as Peyton Manning gets older, the division is going to get tighter, especially as both Houston and Tennessee are finding ways to make things work more regularly. However, the divisional matchups are where things have been defined recently, and the Colts have tended to dominate. This will have to change if we are to see any difference in the overall outcomes:

Indianapolis Colts - Team Peyton Manning. Full stop. Rookie coach Jim Caldwell was barely needed last year as Manning called the shots all the way to the Superbowl where they stalled against the Saints. In all probablity, the Colts win that game if DE Dwight Freeney is fully fit, such is his dominance in disrupting the opposition offense in tandem with Robert Mathis. The secondary could do with a little bit of work but the return of SS Bob Sanders after a year on the IR will hopefully change things. There is no doubt that this team has a ridiculously strong receiving corps - proven performers like Dallas Clark and Reggie Wayne have been backed up by the emergence of both Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie last year. The Colts will hope to tie up Wayne's contract, so that this strength can remain. It generally helps when you have a QB who can find his receivers at will, and Manning is generally reckoned to be the best in the business. Being outshone by Drew Brees in the Superbowl will have hurt and he will want to bounce back. There will always be a question of how long he can keep performing for, but he is fully healthy for the first time in a while, so the decline won't begin in 2010. There are concerns that the offense is too predictable, so perhaps Caldwell will look to utilise Joseph Addai and Donald Brown in the backfield more frequently, although they are not the human wrecking balls you find elsewhere in this division. 12-4 but no Vince Lombardi.

Houston Texans - 2009 was a groundbreaking season for the Texans - their first ever winning record. Unfortunately they missed out on their first ever postseason on account of their relatively poor divisional record. Like the Colts, they are at their most comfortable when throwing the ball, hardly surprising when you have the best WR in the league at your disposal. Andre Johnson threw a little huff over contract negotiations and skipped the start of OTAs but has since returned and will remain Matt Schaub's principle weapon. QB Schaub had a great year, throwing over 4,500 yards for the season and breaking all sorts of records but will need to start finding other options as the coverage on Johnson intensifies. The return of TE Owen Daniels should help. Again, similar to the Colts, they lack a running game, not helped by a poor year by Steve Slaton's standards. Second round draft pick Ben Tate is rated fairly highly and should see some decent game time in 2010. The defense is solid and contains a few real starts, notably Mario Williams and DeMeco Ryans but they really conceded far too many points at key times last season. These fine margins are what cost the Texans last year. Many tip them to fade this year but I say they do make that step into the postseason via the wildcard slots. 10-6.

Tennessee Titans - Another team with a star offensive player, this time at the running back position. No.28 is the sign of a backfield star after Chris Johnson eclipsed Minnesota's Adrian Peterson, breaking the yards from scrimmage record in the process. After a disastrous start, the Titans fell to 0-6 in 2009 in the hands of veteran QB Kerry Collins and never really had enough time to launch a recovery, although 8-2 thereafter looks pretty good. Vince Young was brought back after the horrific 59-0 loss to the Patriots and sparked the recovery with Johnson. Young's career had been on a slide ever since the Madden video game series featured him on the cover of their 2008 version, a fate that Drew Brees will do well to avoid this year. He still looked flaky at times but the stability provided by CJ's seering pace saw the offense do a pretty good job in the latter part of the season. Young can go into 2010 with renewed confidence, although they would do well to re-sign veteran C Kevin Mawae to provide protection - even at 39 he still has the legs for the job and leads from the front. Defensively, they're pretty poor. Kyle VandenBosch has gone to Detroit, leaving rookie Derrick Morgan (the man divisonal rivals Jacksonville should have drafted - more on that in a minute) to carry out the dirty work at DE. They gave up so many yards last year and have failed to change anything for the better and so will only struggle again this year. 9-7.

Jacksonville Jaguars - No thanks, we'll pass on local hero Tim Tebow and superior defensive ends Brandon Graham and Derrick Morgan and select the unknown Tyson Alualu as the 10th overall pick in the draft. Therein lie the problems in Jacksonville - they lack the financial clout to compete regularly in the NFL. They are essentially the unloved third team in Florida, after the Dolphins and the Bucs. I think some of the college teams get more regular support. After investing so much money in QB David Garrard, he has let them down with some sub-standard performances. Tebow may well have been a better long-term prospect, even though doubts about his mechanics remain and it certainly would have got bums on seats. But, as usual, all hopes will be pinned on Pocket Hercules RB Maurice Jones-Drew. If he fires, so does the rest of the team, such is his explosive strength, which at 5'7'' is where I presume the nickname came from! That's about it really, comfortably the weakest side in the division and a record of 6-10 will testify to that

While we're here, it was brought to my attention that Mr "Will-He-Won't-He" Brett Favre of the Vikings looks a little like American bad boy golfer Jon Daly. What do you think?

RM