This is the second part of what has now turned into an piece looking at the upcoming rugby tours. Part one, which is published somewhere back at the end of May, dealt with the Northern Hemisphere visiting teams. This article will have a look at their Southern Hemisphere hosts.
First up, it's South Africa.
South Africa: While their win in Cardiff was impressive due to the way they came back into the game in spite of their unfamiliarity with each other, in the grand scheme of things it isn't very important. The Welsh threw the game away, and the South African's ability to quickly mesh a team of random individuals together probably won't ever be needed again because their first XV is well established and has a big, rich seam of up and coming South African talent to mine.
Kirchner, Aplon and Wynand Olivier in the backs, and Francois Louw and Guthro Steenkamp up front will be given a runout against France that they thoroughly deserve following their standout Super 14 seasons. The Saffers will be interested to see if John Smit's abberation of form and expansion of waist continues, as a tricky decision may then need to be made before the Tri Nations starts.
Pierre Spies must be better incorporated into attacking moves, particularly from set pieces. This can be practised in the second test against Italy. The France encounter will allow his open field game to be expanded.
Pierre Spies is quite good
Rickie Januarie (below) will have to keep up his form, and the back line could do with some more game time to work on quick ball movement.
Australia: The Aussies face England twice, three times if you include the Australian Barbarians, before finishing off against Ireland. If Robbie Deans wants his side to genuinely compete for the 2011 World Cup trophy, then he must win all of these matches. Consistency must be established at this stage, both in mentality and in personnel.
The back division has some challenges ahead. Can Quade Cooper bring his Super 14 form to the table, and will it link with Matt Giteau? The England blitz defence should test this new 10-12 relationship. I would like to see Kurtley Beale (below) on the wing with O'Connor getting all the gametime at fullback. He can be outstanding if he plays enough tests to continue his improvement.
Will Genia will be impressive again, but can his backs capitalise on his fast breaks?
The back row of Elsom, Pocock and Brown should click well. Pocock will be a wall in front of England's midfield, and will prove a pain for the tall English backrowers to remove from the breakdown. He will also cause the Irish as many problems as he did last November.
Pocock
If the pack remains healthy, they will build a stronger link with the backs, somethings lacking for too long. In any case, I think the Aussie backs will end up looking very good this summer.
New Zealand: New Zealand need these tests more than any other nation. Their geographical isolation does provide a tough environment that breeds rugby players like rabbits, but it does mean that the All Blacks are not exposed as much to the differing styles of the Northern Hemisphere teams, and their players cannot move there and gain experience or they will not be selected.
The Welsh and Irish await, and both will provide a reasonable challenge for what is a revamped, but not especially vintage team. The New Zealanders will be looking to test their squad and see if their percieved strengths truly stand up to the test. I think it's almost certain that they will, and I don't predict any of the touring teams getting a win, or coming that close for that matter. The All Blacks must have learned the lessons of France in Wellington last year.
They may wish to start one or both or the Franks brothers in the front row as opposed to Woodcock and Tialata, but considering their strong showings for the Crusaders New Zealand will still be pretty formidable come scrum time. The pack in general will be as bruising and abrasive as usual, but I will be interested to see if Tom Donnelly, Sam Whitelock and Adam Thompson will be as mobile in support as Isaac Ross and Jerome Kaino.
Aaron Cruden
Cowen and Carter should excell together, and Aaron Cruden will probably start for the Maori (1/66,000 Maori I understand) and come off the bench in other tests. Benson Stanley should link well with Conrad Smith in the threequarterline, and Israel Dagg will be dangerous. Fast and agile, with a counterattacking mentality.
Argentina: The Argies will be looking to beat up the Scots and French and affirm that their newfound SANZAR and Tri Nations status is well recieved. While I think they will win one of the two Scotland tests my genuine, non-biased opinion is that Andy Robinson's men will win one of the tests.
The Argentineans need to play test matches even more than the New Zealanders do. This summer, their priority is to establish continuity and cohesion in their back line. The forwards should handle themselves as well as they always do. It will be interesting to see if they can actually go out and properly beat the Scots and French up. Perhaps they will show signs of decline?
Borges and Amorosino on the wings need to see the ball in space, which hasn't happened for quite some time. Contepomi is back at 10 to offset the continuing abscence of Juan Martin Hernandez. If he does not return to the fold soon, the Argentineans are in a fix. As for these tests, Dr. Contepomi below will suffice.
So there we go. My predictions are:
South Africa beat France and Italy. Both are comfortable wins
Australia beat England twice and Ireland. They are relatively close wins
New Zealand beat Wales twice and Ireland. They win big
Argentina beat Scotland once and lose once, and beat a second XV France side. Low scoring?
The South is going to be happy with that!
GM
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