This is the first of a new series that compares two players, teams or any other pairing I care to think of: Federer or Nadal, Brazil or Spain, Godman or Parks (!). It'll provide a brief case for and against each party, and will hopefully allow you to decide whether they truly are "Like for Like"!
This week we delve into the world of the NFL and ask; If you were starting a team right now, who would you pick at Running Back, Johnson or Peterson?
First things first. Statistics:
There aren't many around who would argue that Chris Johnson and Adrian Peterson are not the best two running backs currently in the NFL. The statistics make it hard to oppose that view, and we all know how much Americans love statistics.
While we have to be careful when interpreting stats about running backs, due to factors I will talk about later like the quality of the offensive line they run behind and the nature of the offense in which they play, they are nonetheless a quick and easy way to compare players. So here goes.
Adrian Peterson has been in the league for three seasons. His current yardage total over those three years is 4484 yards on 915 attempts. He has not rushed for less than 1300 yards in any of his three seasons, and his highest rushing total is 1760 yards in 2008. His yards per carry average is 4.9 over three years. In Petersons first 30 games he had 3101 yards rushing , the 3rd best start to a career of all time. He has scored 10+ touchdowns each year, for a total of 40, and has contributed 1 further TD and 83 receptions in the passing game. He has, however, fumbled 9 times in his past two seasons.
So, to sumarise, yardage is excellent, touchdown numbers are very good but not great (as in, "great" great), his fumbling is a concern.
Johnson has only had 2 years in the NFL but has used them well. His total yardage over those two years is 3234 yards. 2006 of those yards came last season. He has had 605 rushing attempts, and averages 5.3 yards a carry. His 93 receptions and 4 receiving TD's add to his 23 TD's rushing. He has fumbled 4 times over two years.
In summary then, CJ's total yardage is more impressive when compared to his number of rushing attempts, but we must take into account the fact that 2006 yards came in a single season. How will next year turn out? He does, though, contribute more in the receiving game, and has no fumble issues.
Advantage: Johnson. His stats show that he combines explosiveness with reliability.
Moving on to Team Situation
Peterson has always played for strong teams. His high school team was dominant, thanks to his efforts. He played college ball at Oklahoma, where he broke most of the university's rushing records, and was drafted by the Minnesota Vikings.
So he has always played behind a strong offensive line. He has also always been the centrepiece of his teams offense, particularly when the bumbling Tarvaris Jackson was under centre and even now with Brett Favre still probably, quite likely, hopefully the starting QB in Minnesota. Credit to Peterson, he has always produced the goods when the expectation is on him. His teams have been generally run first offenses to accomodate him, but the current Vikings have a good passing game and the Oklahoma Sooners also had a strong passing option offense.
Johnson played college ball at East Carolina and, like Peterson, holds most of that university's records for rushing. Obviously, the standard of competition he faced was lower than that Peterson played against, but his teammates were also significantly inferior (he did have current NFLer Audrae Allison at wideout. He currently plays for..the Vikings. A coincidence I feel is worth mentioning!).
Johnson's NFL team, the Tennessee Titans are a well coached and decent team but they struggled badly last year, going 2-6 to start the season, before they took most of their offense away from the erratic Vince Young' hands and into Johnson's, at which point they promptly started winning. Tennessee were a playoff team in 2008, but on the whole are certainly weaker than the Vikings.
Advantage: Johnson. A close one, because obviously the team Peterson plays for will gear themselves up to be a running team to maximise his talent. But on the whole, the teams he has played for have been able to do so because they are already good teams. Make Peterson and Johnson swap teams and who does better or worse? I say that Johnson does a whole lot better for certain.
Finally, other factors (what Americans would call Intangibles)
Peterson came to the NFL with the millstone of being injury prone hanging around his fragile collarbone. So far, the worst case scenario of broken arms and legs has failed to manifest, but he has suffered from a torn LCL in his right knee as well as hamstring issues.
Johnson has suffered no significant injuries over his career. It is worth noting, though, that Johnson remains primarily a openfield threat and does not run the ball into traffic between the tackle as much as Peterson, generally because he has had some other bigger back on his team to do that so he doesn't have to (Lendale White was certainly big...). Peterson is the prototypical 'every down back', pardon the use of the cliche. He is built like an outside toilet on steroids and can run over defenders as well as run away from them.
Peterson runs 'only' a 4.4 forty, compared to Johnson's greyhound-esque 4.24, but he has far greater ability at shoving defenders away and turning what would only have been perhaps 15 yards in 50. Of course, he is less likely to gain 70 yards just by running away from everyone; few can truly do that, even in the NFL, and Johnson is one of them.
Advantage: Got to go with Peterson. He is everything you would want a top running back to be.
Which brings us to: Who is Better?
A very tough choice here. Whoever picks after me in the hypothetical pick whatever NFL back you want draft is going to get a brilliant player also. Peterson is a true NFL feature back in the same like as Ladainian Tomlinson, Emmit Smith and Eric Dickerson. Johnson is quite simply an athletic marvel, a man born to skin defences much like Marshall Faulk, Barry Sanders and the late Walter Payton before him.
When push comes to shove, I'm going to use the Buffalo Bills plan. They took C.J. Spiller using the logic that, no matter how bad things get, there will always be the chance of a touchdown out of the blue. With that thought in mind, I'm going to say Chris Johnson is the winner.
GM
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