Monday 4 April 2011

The Champions League QF's Previewed. Very Briefly

This years Champions League quarterfinals feature German, Italian, Spanish, English and Eastern European sides much like last years edition. Some of these teams are back for another go; Manchester United, Barcelona and Inter Milan. The others, Shakhtar Donetsk, Schalke, Real Madrid, Chelsea and Tottenham, have done better than they did last year (consistent successes Chelsea aside, they have all done a LOT better!). Notably, there is no French involvement, unlike last year which gave us a Lyon - Bordeaux domestic rivalry. This years intra-national matchup is a battle of Premiership foes, as Manchester United square off with Chelsea.

It is certainly surprising to see Spurs progress this far; their success is probably an indictement on the quality of their opponents thus far. Schalke, too, are surprising; indeed, they have practically no right to be here, wallowing as they are in the Bundesliga midtable. We do welcome back an old face this year; hello Real Madrid! It only took you 7 years to break out of your slump.

Without further ado, on to the matchups.

Inter Milan Vs Schalke 04

The reigning European champions have regressed badly following the departure of Jose Mourinho. Rafa Benitez's tenure was a veritable disaster and the fact that results have picked up under Leonardo almost certainly shows how abysmal Inter were before Christmas, as opposed to how gifted a manager Leo is. Inter were just putting together a run in Serie A, looking to close AC Milan's points lead, but they blew their prime chance, the Derby della Milano on Saturday. They lost 3-0 and were abject.

Schalke are thus semmingly ideal opponents, as they have been having an even worse time of things. They are now in the surreal situation of having to adapt to a new coach, Ralf Ragnick, on the cusp of a European quarterfinal, Felix Magath having been disposed of due to bad league form. Can a team in this situation possibly hope to beat Inter, who performed well in the Round of 16? Well, having watched the Milan derby debacle, my head says yes. If there is going to be an upset, it will happen here.

Real Madrid Vs Tottenham Hotspur

If I had told you back in 2003 that Real would be playing Spurs in the Champions League knockout stages, you would have thought I was as crazy as Antonio Cassano (who Real Madrid haven't actually bought yet, but still). Then again, you would have told me that Leeds would be a dangerous side to face. Some of their players, like Jonathan Woodgate, aren't good enough to play for Real, but still...

It is 2011 though, and nowadays it is as rare as sight to see Madrid reach this stage. Spurs have exceeded themselves so far, but Mourinho is the premier tactiian in the world, looking to win back to back European cups. He isn't going to lose this. Harry Redknapp (who simply isn't a managerial genius) will miss the form of Gareth Bale who, even if he manages to play both legs, has no football under him since January. Central defence must also be of great concern, with only Bassong and Dawson fully fit (Gallas may also be in the mix).

Real, for their part, are probably without Cristiano Ronaldo for at least the first leg. That game is at the Bernabeu and, Sporting Gijon notwithstanding, no side has won there this year; they are one of Europe's most resilient teams. If Real stop Spurs scoring in the first game (which basically means shutting down Van Der Vaart and utilising Carvalho's experience against Peter Crouch) then Ronaldo should return to help them easily finish off the job at White Hart Lane. If on the other hand Spurs take a draw or 2-1 loss back to London, the Special One might have to pause for thought.

Barcelona Vs Shakhtar Donetsk

Nobody can bring themselves to seriously back Shakhtar, though arguments can be made for them. Ultimately, strip back all the over-adulation and media bullshit and Barca are still a bloody fine team. And while the game in Donetsk, a hostile environment in which
Shakhtar have built a 60 something game unbeaten run, may not go Barcelona's way, the Ukrainians/ Brazilians surely cannot hope to deny Barca on their home soil.

Injuries to central defenders have forced Barca to field makeshift back 4's. Yet, they have kept on winning. The attack is actually a bit one dimensional at times; if Messi is controlled then Villa really has his work cut out for him. Iniesta is due a big performance, as he has been pretty vanilla in Europe so far.

I would absolutely love Shakhtar to scrape a 1-0 win at home and then shut up shop, park the bus and clog their way to a 0-0 draw in Spain. Mircea Lucescu is a good coach who I would like to be recognised, but it just isn't going to happen is it?

Manchester United Vs Chelsea

Tough call, primarily due to the added intensity of European competition. Man U have proved me dead wrong so far this year; I predicted that age would grind down Giggs, Ferdinand, Scholes and the like and that the Reds wouldn't have the strength in reserve to win the league. Well, those players have slowed down, but Man U have won regardless. I think the problem with my prediction was that I overvalued Chelsea and Arsenal; both have been pretty sloppy this year.

But Arsenal almost beat Barcelona, and Chelsea are obviously still in it. So perhaps we can discount league form a bit. This tie will be close, but in spite of everything I'm going to go with Man U. Chelsea just will not get the same physicality from Essien and Drogba as they did in the 2008 final. Lampard isn't as good, Malouda has fallen off the map and the defence has been ropey of late (see the Stoke game for proof). And obviously the issues up front have been well documented; irrespective of form, can you really rely on Nicolas Anelka this much?

Wayne Rooney will be critical to Man U's chances, as Sir Alex evidently does not trust either Berbatov or Hernandez fully in Europe. Vidic, as always, will also be key; the Man U defence has suffered due to injuries and cannot afford it's leading man to slip up. Nani should be troublesome, but Darren Fletcher is needed in midfield; he has suffered from a virus of late. If the Scotsman can provide some steel and fight to the Reds midfield, Chelsea will just not be able to assert themselves as they need to in order to win this tie.

GM

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