Post No.200! Another milestone for BtC, the focus having very much shifted to quality over quantity these days - some things just aren't worth writing about. Which didn't stop the Guardian dedicating three of it's hallowed pages to the meaningless England vs Wales Euro 2012 qualifier. Although I did enjoy the fact that they had a big photo of Aaron Ramsey that spanned two of said pages, the divide being almost exactly at the point where his leg was broken. Sliding the pages about made for some interesting Shawcross-esque artwork. Anyway, I digress. You'll notice that sort of tangential thinking if you look back at the 199 previous posts!
The Cricket World Cup group stages are now over. Rejoice! Even the most ardent of fans couldn't stay with it loyally to its conclusion. And, despite England's wobbles against inferior opposition, the 8 teams expected to get through have got there. Why didn't we just start the tournament now, save everyone a month, and have a second tier competition for teams who blatantly aren't good enough to mix it with the big boys? That said, there were some pretty good moments from the early rounds. Ross Taylor's slow crawl to 60 before launching a stinging attack over cow corner on Pakistan's beleagured quick men to reach a quickfire unbeaten ton was my personal highlight. Which just pipped all the Indians getting so excited about Sachin Tendulkar's 99th international hundred, only for the bowlers to fail in the defence of 299 against the predictably hit-and-miss South Africa. Obviously Ireland had their big moment, as did Bangladesh as their tail defied England to record a memorable home victory. Only to be skittled in double figures twice, by the Windies and the predictably hit-and-miss Saffers. Other than that, let's move on, and just focus on the quarter finals:
Pakistan vs West Indies: Two sides who have a reputation for big hitting and possessing the ability to beat any side on their day. The perennial "dark horses" if you like. Except that the Windies haven't beaten any side of note in about 3 years. And don't really have a plan when it comes to structuring an innings with the bat - do they go for the big hitters of Gayle, Pollard and Sammy up the order or prefer to save the firepower for later and rely on accumulators like Sarwan, Chanderpaul and Devon Smith? Obviously the game situation will dictate affairs, but both strategies have been tested against quality opposition and both have been found wanting - maybe the battin lineup just isn't that good. To give them their dues, they have the edge in the bowling attack considering the conditions. Sulieman Benn has become a quality spin option to open with, attacking the stumps and making the batsmen play. Kemar Roach and Andre Russell are genuinely rapid and the new leg-spinner Bishoo has impressed some observers (although not me - I think he drops it too short. Consistency is so tricky for a leggie, they rarely become anything more than average). Compare to a Pakistan side without Shoaib Akhtar on all cylinders, and you have a fairly pedestrian and one-dimensional attack. But then there is always the Afridi factor. Not a great turner of the ball, just superb subtle variations in flight, pace and turn. Simple tricks done well for a spin bowler. And if he, Abdul Razzaq or Umar Akmal can fire with the bat, West Indies will struggle to come close.
Verdict - You never know with either batting lineup. Younis and Misbah provide more stability for Pakistan, so they get more of a platform and win in relative comfort and style.
India vs Australia - A match-up that everyone wanted to see - except in the final in Mumbai rather than a quarter-final in Motera. Both sides have a great pedigree and a big reputation. Both have failed to match it so far. Australia just lost their first World Cup match in 34 games last week against Pakistan and have flattered to deceive in previous matches. They failed to bowl Kenya out inside 50 overs and have looked bereft of ideas once Lee, Tait and Johnson have bowled out. That leaves at least 20 overs for opposition batsmen to get after the likes of Jason Krejza, Steve Smith and Shane Watson. And if any lineup could exploit such weakness, it'll be the Indians. What a time it would be for Sachin Tendulkar to score his 100th 100 in international cricket. The Little Master has been brilliant so far and has been backed up by a rejuvenated Yuvraj Singh, who has played with real responsibility to get the side over the line in some awkward situations. Sehwag, Yusuf Pathan and skipper MS Dhoni will also destroy a bowler's soul on their day. But then, what do India really offer with the ball? Zaheer Khan's class and Harbhajan keeps things tight without taking wickets and then you have a bunch of plodders and part-time spinners. The likes of Watson, Brad Haddin and a fully-fit Mike Hussey could make hay. And Ricky Ponting is really, really, REALLY due a score. So will probably get 3 again.
Verdict - It'll be a high-scoring match. The fervour of the crowd will finally work against India when they start getting dicked around the park. Australia by a whisker.
South Africa vs New Zealand - We all know who should win this one. But it's knockout cricket and SA tend to shit their pants in these situations. This time, they tell us, it'll be different. Graeme Smith is skippering the side for the last time after a distinguished service without much reward. The boys should get fired up to win something for him. And to be fair, most of them have stood up and performed at one point in the group stages - Amla, de Villiers and Duminy particularly displaying the necessary aptitude to bat on the subcontinent. Far removed from previous sides, the spinners have also played a role, Robin Peterson the surprising stand-out. And the ever threatening Dale Steyn still poses a problem, with a superb death spell against the Indians to keep the run chase manageable. NZ have had their moments, but have been blighted by injuries to their bowlers. Hamish Bennett, their quickest threat, has gone home with a calf strain and has been replaced by the less dangerous Daryl Tuffey. Old hands Dan Vettori and Kyle Mills are expected to play, but will be half-fit. All of the batsmen are capable, particularly Ross Taylor, but a lot will ride on which SA turns up
Verdict - Believe! South Africa to lay down a challenge to all the other teams with a big win. And then lose in the semis.
Sri Lanka vs England - Now let's make no bones about it, this game will be close. England don't do boring in this tournament. People will believe that a strong Sri Lankan outfit will sweep the inconsistent English aside and march on to the final. It actually might not happen. First of all, what if there is a batting collapse from the co-hosts? You've got Dilshan, Sangakkara and Jayawardene. Then what? Who can graft at 20-3 and go on to get you a ton? There is no-one at 5 of the calibre of Eoin Morgan. Angelo Mathews is a talented all-rounder, but cannot be relied on to provide 10 overs of seam up and dig the batsmen out of a hole. However, if the top order does fire and England continue to struggle early on with the new ball, they'll be tough to beat. England's seamers have been nothing short of godawful. However, Swann and Tredwell have more than enough nous to match the threat that Ajantha Mendis and the redoubtable Muttiah Muralitharan possess.
Verdict - It comes down to which spin department performs best. Sri Lanka have more experience of playing in the conditions of Colombo. They win.
RM
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