How the AFC West Will Be Won

The teams in this division are far from evenly matched. You need to look at the starting QBs to see the gulf in class between the four - one with an elite passer, two with decent guys who generally post good numbers without setting the world alight and one with Matt Cassel. You would generally think the San Diego Chargers will walk this division based on previous form, but look a little closer and you may identify a few potential surprises:

San Diego Chargers - it hasn't really been the quiet off-season that an NFL team could hope for. A number of star players have moved on, held out or been the subject of much speculation over their contract status. Let's start with the RB position. Veteran LaDanian Tomlinson has gone to New York Jets, with his numbers beginning to drop off. A good move by the Chargers - Tomlinson was bringing less and less to the offense and rookie Ryan Matthews is already tipped by many to be Offensive Rookie of the Year. He'll certainly see plenty of action in the backfield, unlike CJ Spiller of Buffalo, who has a real committee alongside him to carry the ball (although he is the only one not currently injured!). Now we come to the holdouts - the two who have not yet signed are crucial to San Diego's chances, the man who did eventually sign less so. OLB "Lights Out" Shawne Merriman is a good player, don't get me wrong but he never re-found his best last year after an injury-hit 2008, so did he really deserve a new bumper contract? There is also relative depth at that position on the roster. Less so at LT, where Marcus McNeill normally resides. His holdout, and that of WR Vincent Jackson could seriously derail Philip Rivers' offense. Malcolm Floyd will have to step up and make more plays in the receiving corps if Jackson is not to be missed. That is if Rivers isn't sacked first through lack of protection. They were denied a Championship game in 2009 through Nate Kaeding's misfiring boot. They won't get as far this time. Win the division 10-6 but out in the wild card round.

Denver Broncos - with all the hype surrounding the drafting of Tim Tebow, it's sometimes hard to remember who runs the offense in Denver. It's Kyle Orton by the way. I still have no idea 4 months on why the Broncos were so desperate for Tebow and indeed why they selected WR Demaryius Thomas in the first round as well. They can pass the ball no problem and RB Knowshon Moreno should progress in his sophomore year. The simple truth is that Josh McDaniels' side is defensive awful. Now even more so that it appears that star LB Elvis Dumervil will be out for the best part of the season with a pectoral injury. There is now so much resting on the shoulders of 9-time Pro Bowl CB Champ Bailey - can his production really stay at such a high standard forever? Even if he can, the depth around him is so weak that it will be easy for the opposition to target whichever area of the field he is not patrolling! As I've already said, the offense will win them games on their own. The standout guy is the giant OT Ryan Clady, who will probably make Tebow look better than he actually is if he ever does get out onto the field. The rest of the unit is lacking in star names - like their starting QB they are decent pros who know how to get a job done. 8-8

Oakland Raiders - hold the front page folks. The Raiders drafted sensibly! JaMarcus Russell has gone to presumably eat himself to an early grave and Jason Campbell takes over at QB, having proven to be a man to do a difficult job at Washington. When you add in 8th overall pick - LB Rolando McClain and OT Bruce Campbell, an absolute steal of a 4th round pick, you can see that Tom Cable now has the ingredients to take this side to the next level. I am well aware that this has been said many times before and the team have not delivered on their promises. I'm not saying they're going to make a crazy run to the Superbowl, where Darrius Heyward-Bey will score the winning touchdown and be voted MVP. Just no. Although I do hear that Heyward-Bey has now learned how to catch the football as well as be fast. The defense is the main spine of this team - CB Nnamdi Asomugha is a real star and has shut out many of the best receivers in the game at embarrassingly regular intervals. McClain is expected to slot straight into the defense and will probably make a serious impact. It's probably also worth noting that K Sebastian Janikowski has one hell of a boot of him, so much so that he was a first round pick back in the days when the Raiders were idiots. I think some big teams won't be laughing quite so hard during the regular season. Oakland will spring tha few surprises on the way to 9-7 but it won't be enough.

Kansas City Chiefs - Still rubbish. If the running game fails, they fail. To that end, free agent Thomas Jones was brough in by the Jets, having had a career best year last year (in terms of both yards and TDs). That said, Steven Hawking would probably gain over 1,000 yards rushing for the Jets, such is the protection given by their O-Line. Jones will probably struggle behind lesser mortals in that position, although Jamaal Charles looks a really decent RB and will look to build on his first 1,000 year in 2009. This is pretty much where the positives end. One of football's great mysteries is how Matt Cassel led the Patriots to the playoffs in 2008 when Tom Brady was absent. He did not have a good year in 2009 - his first as a starting QB, in Kansas City. You simply cannot throw as many interceptions as you do TDs. Unless your name is Mark Sanchez of course. Tyson Jackson had a decent rookie year and will want to improve, spurring the defense onto greater things. To that end, SS Eric Berry (hereby known as Erc Brry, in honour of Charley Casserly) has been drafted high as a ball-hawk, making plays where the offense will not. 5-11

RM