Heineken Cup Quarter-finals

This weekend sees the start of true knockout European Rugby. With the group stages over, we are left with a strong French mood to the competition. For once, at least considering the past few years, the Top 14 has raised it's game and performed with consistency through the group stages, and is rewarded with at least one French team guaranteed in the semi's.

My predictions usually end up being complete hash. However, it would be cowardly not to give some anyway. Carpe Diem and all that.

Leinster Vs Clermont Auvergne

Two teams who both looked solid bets for the final now face a tough test to progress. Certainly, Clermont have looked good throughout the Heineken Cup and in the Top 14. Bolstered by the Grand-slam winning contingent of Julien Bonnaire, Thomas Domingo and field general Morgan Parra, and featuring the powerful running of Rougerie (hopefully his head has cleared since that first Six Nations match in Edinburgh!), the incisive lines of Floch at 15 and the swan-like grace of Julien Malzieu in the back 3, they are dangerous on the attack and, in general, cerebral in their execution; outhalf Brock James' greatest assest is his head. The pack has a combination of brutish power provided by Canadian 2nd Row Cudmore and a front row featuring an Argentinian and a Georgian, and also quickness coming from Elvis Vermuelen and Bonnaire in the Back Row.

Leinster are actually very comparable to Clermont. Substitute Kearney, Horgan and Nacewa as the Back 3 and you have good counterattacking pace. Their pack though, is the equal of Clermont in brute force (Cullen, Hines and Van der Linde), and possesses genuine pace in Heaslip and McLaughlin and Jennings. Jonny Sexton, on current form, is also a significant plus for Leinster.

Result: All this adds up to a close Leinster win by around 3 in my book.

Biarritz Vs Ospreys

Ah boys, how you flatter to decieve! Ospreys have spent the past three seasons scraping through the Heineken group stages as best runners up. Each time, they have then proceeded to turn in ugly, ugly losses at the Quarterfinal stage.

This year, the Welsh super-region are languishing in 5th position in the Magners. It seems to me that they have been overtaken by more youthful outfits. Ospreys are an older team, but in the main their problem is that they play old. You watch them, a team containing Bowe, Byrne, Hook and Williams, and they just seem to play OLD. Their style seems worn; slow and forced, lacking in spontaneity. I wish I could be more scientific and actually quantify what I'm trying to illustrate, but for just now you're going to have to take my word for it; I watch a lot of rugby, and this is what stands out to me.

The above notwithstanding, Ospreys are talent-rich, solid and well drilled. They will not be destroyed or embarassed as if they were Viadana. However, if they go behind by a few, I genuinely fail to see them coming back and triumphing.

Biarritz have been a mess domestically, plunging down the table before a recent little run has stopped the rot. Too late for a serious challenge for the French title, but enough to restore confidence in the team that was so convincing in the group stages. I think they will play better rugby, will be more effective, and will utilise their own talent (Harinordoquay, Yachvilli, Traille and Ngwenya) better.

Result: Biarritz to go ahead early and to never relinquish their lead. French win by at least 5.

Munster Vs Northampton

There is recent history to this one, with both sides winning at home against each other in the group stages. Pretty evenly matched those two games were as well, being decided by 2 and 3 points.

Northampton have been having a strong season. Usefully for them, Martin Johnson thinks that winners are not inherently superior to Tigers, and so Ashton, Foden, Lawes and Geraghty have had plenty of rest either at home or on the Engalnd bench (N.B. it looks like Stephen Myler, not Geraghty, will start at 10). Munster's internationals, O'Gara apart, have had significantly more work to do of late. Will this affect them? Probably a little.

What certainly will be an influence is presistent injuries to Flannery, O'Callaghan, Leamy and Mafi. Start they may, but last the full 80?

Earls is probably the most dangerous strike runner in Britain, and Saints' backs have much attacking flair. I think this game will have moments of dynamism and creativity, but I also believe that the packs, and by extension the goalkicking, will be the deciding factor in this. Munster are stronger in both of these departments.

Result: The English press have been hyping Saints up to win this, but at the end of the day I feel Munster's experience and overall talent will show. A couple of tries for Northampton, but the Irish to outscore them and come away winners. Munster by at least 7.


Toulouse Vs Stade Francais

This may be tough for me, as I don't watch that much Top 14 (proportionally, of course; I probably watch more Top 14 than at least 99.3% of the population)

Both teams haven't exactly had the best time of it domestically. The South Coasters at least can look forward to the playoffs. All Stade have to look forward to is the arrival of new coach Michael Cheika from Leinster. Oh, and the introduction of a salary cap next year. That'll sit well with them.

Toulouse feature a staggeringly high level of talent considering that I am used to watching Phil Godman and Craig Hamilton week in, week out. Louis Picamoles and Grand-Slam captain Dusautoir, Yannick Nyanga and Shaun Sowerby are all dynamic and skillful members of the Back Row group. And they also have your generic massive South Sea Islander in Finau Maka. Other internationalists amongst the forwards; Albacete, Millo-Chluski, Servat and Census Johnson.

The backs? Oh, the backs. Kelleher and Elissalde at 9, Michalak and Skrela at 10, Fritz, Jann David and Jauzion in the centre, and Clerc, Heymans, Medard and Poitrenaud running off them.

Stade bring their usual glamour heavy XV to the table. Glam even exists in the forwards with Brand Haskell and Swarzeswski (who is around 5000% too attractive to be a French forward- still has working ears for one thing). The Bergamasco's will link up with one-or-two time France 10 Lionel Beauxis, who leads a back line featuring Julian Arias, Matheu Bastareaud (Him versus Jauzion. As Madden would exclaim: BOOM) and Scottish siege gunner Hugo Southwell at FB. Sadly missing are Parisse (injury), Dupuy and Attoub (bad boys).

Stade have been woefully inconsistent at home, but strong in Europe. And they did manage to beat Clermont last weekend using a thoroughly unglamerous tactical kicking game.

Result: Can Stade execute a tactical gameplan two weeks in a row? Because if they can, I believe that they can beat Toulouse if the southerners are not completely up for it. Will Stade be able to do so? I genuinely don't know. So I'm going to have to go for a push here.

GM