Blackburn Rovers - 7/5 West Ham (A), 14/5 Man United (H), 22/5 Wolves (A)
Ah Team Venky's. I actually considered not including Blackburn in this list after their three points last weekend against Bolton, which pretty much gave them enough breathing room to survive for this season at least. Basically, the team has been sold down the river by the owners, removing Sam Allardyce, who, despite his "aesthetically functional" tactics, did at least have enough nous and experience at this level to comfortably guide a mediocre team through the season. Steve Kean, nice bloke though he is, does not. It is not fair on him that he has the job and all the pressures that come with it and it is not fair on the team to be managed by someone who isn't really suitable for the job. Venky's supposedly have big plans for this club, somewhere along the lines of the Walker dynasty. How do they expect to realise their ambitions with such inexperience at the helm. And how do they expect anyone big in the game to take the job when Kean inevitably gets shelved in the summer after the way they dealt with Big Sam?
On the field, the problem has been goals. Roque Santa Cruz returned as a prodigal son in January, but is clearly broken by his experience at Man City, as he has yet to recapture the form that made him a fans' favourite in the first place. And as I've already said, mediocrity runs through the side. Name me their starting XI. Exactly. They do not have enough big name players to challenge for the top half of the league and not enough prestige to attract such players. However, there is enough stability in the defense, with Paul Robinson, Ryan Nelsen and Chris Samba to keep Wolves and West Ham at bay in the next few weeks, so you have to tip them to survive. They are bad - just not as bad as the teams around them.
Prediction - 42 points - SAFE
Blackpool - 7/5 Tottenham (A), 14/5 Bolton (H), 22/5 Man United (A)Graeme looked rather foolish at the start of the season having predicted that Blackpool "basically were fucked" and would finish bottom of the Premier League. They then embarked on an astonishing early season run where their exciting brand of attacking football took the league by storm and propelled them into the upper echelons of the league. We all knew they were a team greater than the sum of their parts and knew that inevitably it must all catch up with them. DJ Campbell cannot be relied upon for goals forever. It doesn't help when your talisman doesn't want to play for you anymore either (quite why Charlie Adam saw Liverpool as a desirable alternative I will never know).
No, the main reason why Blackpool eventually will be fucked is the very ethos that Ian Holloway instilled in them at the start of the year. The "We Can Score One More Than You" attitude surprised the opposition early on, who sat back and allowed the Seasiders to create opportunities. And then they wised up. And realised that the reason they were attacking is that their defence was awful. Like truly AWFUL. So the way to beat Blackpool was to simply attack back and let them implode. Which they have now down. Simple really. I could be a Premier League manager - but then, so could Ian Holloway!
Oh and they've got a bitch of a run-in
Prediction - 36 points - 20th
Wigan - 7/5 Aston Villa (A), 14/5 West Ham (H), 22/5 Stoke (A)
How costly will the Hand of Hugo prove? Rodallega's inexplicable handball which cost Wigan all three points against Everton on Saturday made things that bit harder for his side, when it looked as though they could have moved out of the relegation zone for good. How Roberto Martinez has kept his job this season I do not know. Here is another man who has tried to play attacking football at the expense of the basics in defending and has paid the price simply because the attacking threat at his disposal is not nearly good enough to win games regularly. And yet, they do seem to be finding a bit of form. Rodallega seems to have goals in him and Charles N'Zogbia appears to have awoken from the torpor that has afflicted him pretty much throughout his uneventful and average career. They might just do it...
A word of warning - the defense contains Gary Caldwell. Cock-ups are literally seconds away, at any stage, in any game. And when he is playing well, he will inevitably lunge when an opposition striker is clean through and get himself sent off. This behaviour is typical of the defense at large. There is one simple reason why Wigan are not already down - Ali Al-Habsi. The big Omani has led the way and made cracking saves at crucial times. If he can keep the opposition at bay over the next 270 minutes, there are enough goals in this side that they might conceivably get results in each of their last three to squeeze out of danger.
Prediction - 38 points - SAFE
Wolves - 8/5 West Brom (H), 14/5 Sunderland (A), 22/5 Blackburn (H)
Wolves are just rubbish. I'm sorry, but they are. They've survived by kicking teams up in the air and hoping they land awkwardly. It hasn't worked which is why they now find themselves well and truly in the mire. They do have some decent players. Well, they have Wayne Hennessey, who more often than not has shown himself to be a goalkeeper of real potential. And amusingly yet another decent keeper who England can't have. I quite like the creativity of Nenad Milijas as well and we all know how much Matt Jarvis has blossomed in adversity. The problem they have is that there is no-one decent to get on the end of their crosses. Any team built around Sylvan Ebanks-Blake has issues. He was slow, lazy, selfish and cumbersome many years ago when I watched him for Plymouth, but his goalscoring record in the Championship (when Plymouth were quite good) was enough to tempt Wolves to pay £1 million for him. Incidentally, where did that money go for Argyle? I digress, but at Premier League level, he has proven himself to everyone to be exactly what I observed down at Home Park. Steven Fletcher is another, scoring by the bucketload in the SPL, but coming down to Burnley and Wolves and being equally as shit as Ebanks-Blake.
If you don't have quality strikers, you don't deserve to survive. If you don't look to play positively, you don't deserve to survive. No matter how much of a lad Mick McCarthy is, they're doomed.
Prediction - 37 points - 18th
West Ham - 7/5 Blackburn (H), 14/5 Wigan (A), 22/5 Sunderland (H)
3 games. 3 six pointers. And you can guarantee that not a flicker of emotion will pass over Avram Grant's face at any stage during those massive games. I can tell you that win or lose, I will be getting emotional - after the 2-1 defeat to Man City yesterday, my £10 bet placed in November that the Hammers would be departing the Premier League come May looks very close to coming to fruition. You look at some of the players though, and you see real quality. Scott Parker, Rob Green (despite his World Cup howler, he is another keeper keeping his side afloat, reference the 0-0 draw with Spurs) and Robbie Keane are all so proven at this level and in games against relatively weak opposition, should have the drive and experience to encourage their younger and more distractable teammates to pick up 9 from 9 and survive.
But it won't happen. It should have happened on so many occasions this year but they cannot seem to get themselves up for the big games. They even conspired to chuck away the Carling Cup semi-final. The problem with West Ham is that there is so much going on off the park that you can never expect the players to be 100% focused on it. Since Gold and Sullivan took over you've had the dumping of Gianfranco Zola, the Olympic Stadium Battle Royale with Spurs (and Leyton Orient), the flirtation with Martin O'Neill, Karren Brady spouting off about women not knowing the offside rule (shut up bitch and make me... etc), the list goes on.
I say that all the negative press attention gets to them and they bottle it. They're lucky it's still in their hands!
Prediction - 37 points - 19th
RM
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