Mark Cavendish - I'm not a cycling expert but I know that the peak of the sport is the Tour de France. Now, Cavendish managed to win five stages this year, which probably makes him the most successful British sprinter of all time. Did he win the green jersey? No. Close but no cigar - probably where he'll end up in SPOTY, although not many of the nominees can lay claim to being the best Brit ever in their sport. Mind you he's from the Isle of Man, who'll probably want independence some time soon. Did win the inferior Tour of Spain, probably a similar consolation to when England beat Bulgaria after the World Cup.
Tom Daley - a so-called ambassador for my hometown of Plymouth. My dad has even met him, saying he's a "lovely young man". However, the bully boys got to him at the fearsome Eggbuckland Commuinty College, so he moved to a private, "better" school in the area. Where I know the bullying is far worse, so good luck with that. Daley's 2010 featured injuries followed by 2 gold medals in the Commonwealth Games. Whilst it's an achievement to beat the Aussies, there's still no Chinese competition, so the field is not at it's strongest. Plus, no-one watched the Commonwealth Games, so he's likely to slip under the radar for the time being.
Jessica Ennis - look, I'll be watching SPOTY just to see how well Ennis scrubs up. It's just a pity that Victoria Pendleton's had a quiet year. And a relief that Rebecca Adlington has as well. Ennis won European gold in the heptathlon, a fair achievement when she was up against the Olympic champion. In fact, most good multi-discipline eventers are European, so Ennis' dominance of the sport recently is impressive. I would rate her highly, but to win SPOTY from athletics, you really have to be noticed. The European Champs are not that platform.
David Haye - boxers always do well at SPOTY, but to be honest, I can't help but be unimpressed with Haye's year. All he's done is mouth off a lot and then knock out two clearly inferior opponents to retain his WBA Heavyweight Title. Although we can all be thankful for the fact that he's taken Audley Harrison out of the public eye (STOP PRESS - Harrison is now saying he will continue fighting - moron!). Until he finally calls out a Klitschko and dispatches of them in the way that the Ukranian cloggers deserve (they take on weaker fighters than both Harrison and John Ruiz), he, to my mind, cannot be a contender. But he'll probably be in the Top 3.
AP McCoy - a clear early front-runner. Which is why I'm about to piss on that particular bonfire. Here stands the emotional choice of which I was talking in my introduction. Yes, he broke his 15-year duck in the Grand National on Don't Push It. Yes, he went past the 3000 winners mark. Congratulations and all that. BUT - there was nothing in particular about his 2010 as a whole that makes him more outstanding than the other nominees. You don't see every National winner nominated for SPOTY. You don't see Paul Hanagan, a jockey who came from nowhere to become the Champion, on this year's shortlist, despite his greater consistency this calendar year. Yet the great McCoy stands a great chance. He won't get my vote.
Graeme McDowall - Now here is a man who has had a great year, and certainly one of my Top 3. To come from seemingly nowhere to win the US Open at Pebble Beach and become the first Brit in 11 years to win a major is an achievement enough. To then back it up with the winning putt at No.12 in the Ryder Cup at Celtic Manor was a fairytale, particularly as it seemed like Europe were going to throw it away right at the very end as the USA clawed their deficit back. McDowall is now a Top 10 player and a star of the European Tour.
Graeme Swann - It's an ill-disguised fact that I love Swanny. He's made finger spin bowling fashionable and cool again. He's been part of the successful World T20 squad, England's first triumph in a global cricketing event. He's been the key man against Bangladesh and Pakistan this summer. He's now the No.2 Test bowler in the world and he's done it all with humility, a smile and an amusing Twitter account. The fact that two years ago he was nothing more than a jobbing county player makes his ascension all the more amazing. How he fares in SPOTY depends on how England go in the next 2 Ashes Tests before the ceremony. If they're leading, you can guarantee Swann will be Top 3.
Phil Taylor - Really? Yes, he's done really well but he's actually won everything before! 2010 was nothing special by The Power's standards, merely another good day at the office. And I'll shut this blog down if a darts player is ever considered enough of a "Sports Personality" to win the crown.
Lee Westwood - another star of the Ryder Cup, albeit one who I feel is less deserving of SPOTY than McDowall. Like Cavendish, Westwood has achieved great things and is now the man at the top of his sport, but when things have got really tough and really momentous, has fallen just short. Runners-up spots at the Open and the Masters will testify to that. He may also now be World No.1, a great achievement, but is mostly down to Tiger Woods' imploding personal life. Has also spent large chunks of the year injured.
Amy Williams - Ah, so it is an Olympic year after all. Therefore, she should be a shoe-in for SPOTY having won Team GB's first individual gold since Robin Cousins. Oh, it's the Winter Olympics. The point at which all but the upper-middle class switch off, and that's only because they once skiied at Whistler and can do the luge better than the entire nation of Georgia. This doesn't make Williams undeserving, it just means her chances in SPOTY are zero.
If I had it my way I would have a Top 3 of McDowall, Williams and Cavendish in that order. Dream on Ryan!
RM